- The script repeats itself and XRP enters a statistically pre-upward stage.
- An exhausted market exaggerates the emotion amid minor falls.
- The failure to overcome key levels is the origin of the falls.
Today we are dawning in Europe with widespread falls on the Crypto board. At the time of writing, all three main assets are losing critical supports.
However, the ETH/BTC pair has lost the uptrend line and is now looking for the next, lower but similarly uptrend inclination. The behavior of the ETH/BTC is key in the crypto market, as important as it marks the direction of the market.
Cryptocurrencies falling? The money moves towards Bitcoin in a flight to quality or confidence. Cryptos rising? Money rotates towards Altcoins looking for Beta.
Today, we may possibly see more generalized price falls in the crypto segment, which can be extended further in time if certain key levels are drilled.
BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart
The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at the $3.373 price level after attempting to cross the EMA50 unsuccessfully during the Asian session. After more than 58 weeks of falls, the failure falls like a jug of cold water, but the BTC/USD only lost $70, a fraction as far as the daily range is concerned when it comes to Bitcoin.
Of course, the headlines of the day place the future value of the BTC/USD at around $1,000 and open the full the doors of the apocalypse – A panicky environment that brings us closer to the final capitulation point.
In today’s chart, I have drawn a bearish channel that understands the bearish movement since mid-December, and that will help us find the action points in the short term.
Below the current price, the BTC/USD pair does not have much margin within the bearish channel. The first support level is at the price level of $3,360 (price congestion support), while the second support level is at $3,300 (price congestion support). Below this support level is the lower trend line of the channel that will be active at least until February 12. The breakage of the downstream channel would be worrying since Bitcoin would lose the frame of reference and the panic would then be entirely justified. The price level of this trend line is between $3,270 and $3,210 for the next six days.
Above the current price, the clear objective has been the executioner of today, the exponential moving average of 50 periods. Between the current rate and the level through which this exponential average passes there is a price congestion resistance level of $3,400. As the crucial second level of resistance to conquer it is $3,470 (SMA100 and price congestion resistance). The roof of the downstream channel is between $3,770 and $3,700 for the next six days.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart leans lower and manages to open a gap between the lines. The movement is minimal concerning the fall in price, so we must wait at least until the end of today to accurately assess the possible development of the MACD in the following days.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bears reacting strongly to the bearish movement. The bulls, on the other hand, retreat a little, but not to the same extent that the bears have gained ground. Both sides of the market remain above the ADX, which increases the chances of violent price swings in both directions.
ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart
The ETH/USD is currently trading at the $102.5 price level, already losing more than 30% from the price levels seen earlier this year. Early in the day, in the Asian session, ETH/USD has reached levels not seen since late December, hitting a low at $101.12.
The ETH/USD also failed yesterday in its attempt to cross upward the EMA50 and now struggles not to lose price congestion support at $102. Below this support level, the second support level is at the psychological level of $100 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $98 (price congestion support). I want to highlight how the long bearish sideways movement is creating congestion levels very close together on the price scale. An authentic wall of support or resistance, depending on which side the ETH/USD ends on.
Above the current price, the technical targets are similar to the BTC/USD pair. Until we reach the EMA50 which is at $107.5, there is a level of congestion per price at $105.5 (price congestion resistance). The next hurdle is a little higher, at the $110 price level, there is another price congestion resistance and the SMA100. The simple average of 200 periods moves at the price level of $123 and is the definitive point to be able to affirm that a change in trend has been consolidated.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a slight bearish profile with hardly any distance between the lines that make up this indicator. The potential to create a significant divergence is high.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bears reacting strongly to falls while bulls weaken more here than in the case of Bitcoin. Bullseyes are placed below the ADX and lose bull potential.
XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart
The XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.289 price level and is dangerously close to the lows seen at the end of January. The drop from the relative highs of last January 31st is already more than 20%. The XRP does not drop as a result of a failed attempt to cross the EMA50, as just four days ago it pierced the EMA50 and the SMA100 without difficulty, even reaching the price level of the SMA200.
Below the current price, the first support is at $0.288 (price congestion support). This support has very little chance of resisting. The second level of support is at $0.285 (price congestion support) while the third level is at the price level of $0.282 (price congestion support).
Above the current price, the first resistance level is $0.293 (price congestion resistance) but the primary objective, the 50-period exponential moving average is well above $0.303. At the second resistance level, which is at the price level of $0.308 (price congestion resistance and SMA100). The simple average of 200 periods is $0.325.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a typical chart structure pattern. There is a MACD failure. Statistically, an upturn should occur in the next few hours.
The 4-hour DMI graph also shows in the case of the XRP the bears taking control of the situation. The bulls retreat slightly and stay above the ADX line.