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Is This the Start of the Expected Recovery? Bitcoin BTC Price Analysis

From yesterday’s low at around $111,4B the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap has increased by 2,1 billion dollars, as it has spiked up today to $113,5B where it is currently sitting.

  • Market Cap: $113,422,927,049
  • 24h Vol: $16,298,720,630
  • BTC Dominance: 53.1%

Looking at the global chart we can see that the evaluation broke out from the horizontal resistance level of the prior range and has currently interacted with the horizontal support of the prior range which now serves as resistance.

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased from 53.4% to 53.08% at its lowest point today.

The market is in green today with an average percentage of change among the top 100 coins ranging from 1-5%. The biggest gainer is Litecoin with an increase of over 12%, followed by Veritaseum with an increase of 16.51% and HyperCash with an increase of 17.45%.

Bitcoin BTC/USD

From yesterday’s low at $3434 the price of Bitcoin has increased by 1.66% measured to the current level at $3492. The price spiked further up, to $3506 but only for a small period of time.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has spiked up to the 0.618 Fibonacci level exactly where the intersection with the falling wedge resistance line is, which again confirms the validity of my outlined chart pattern. The price has encountered resistance at that point which is why we are seeing wicks from the upper side of the hourly candles indicating selling pressure. Currently, the hourly candle is sitting at the 0.5 Fibonacci level where it is trying to establish support, but the selling pressure might be stronger at these levels for the price to stay here.

As I was yesterday expecting a lower low after which a trend reversal should occur the question imposes – was the minor decrease to the prior low level at slightly above the 0 Fibo level that decreases and more importantly, is this current upside movement the start of the trend reversal?

By looking at the hourly chart above you can see that I have adjusted the last Minuette 4th wave to include today’s increase which means that I am still expecting a lower low after the start of the trend reversal. But we are going to examine further if this could be true or not.

Zooming into the 5-min chart we can examine the potential of a further increase. We can see that the price increased in a three-wave manner which is an indication of a corrective movement

On the 5-min chart, you can see that I have excluded the last increase from the Minuette count as to assume that this increase is the start of the trend reversal. If it is then the wave structure would have been the in five waves. Currently, we are seeing the price action forming a symmetrical triangle which could be a bull flag considering the context. If the price goes up from here and breaks from the upside than it still has some major resistance points above line the falling wedge resistance the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the horizontal support of the prior range at $3511 (black horizontal line), which is why I don’t believe that it will go much further. Even if it does for a quick peek above those levels I wouldn’t be expecting it to stay there for much longer.

Zooming out to the 4-hour chart you can see that the mentioned horizontal support level of the prior range. That level will serve as an indicator of whether or not the trend reversal has started.

Simply if the price continues its upward trajectory and manages to go above the level, retraces back, finds support and starts rising again, then we are most likely seeing the start of the expected recovery. But for now, price action analysis points out that the price has only created a lower high and that we are still in a downtrend and my primary count remains the same.


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